A Look at the Four Current Play-In Tournament Candidates
From the current fifth-seeded Lakers and beyond, the Western Conference’s playoff race is pretty tight. Only 5.5 games separate the Lakers and the 10th-seeded Warriors, but, let’s be honest, it’s extremely unlikely that Golden State jumps the three teams in front of them, ends the season as the 6-seed and gets themselves out of the play-in tournament.
The Warriors, Spurs, Grizzlies and Blazers are the four teams in play-in-game contention at the moment, so let’s take a look at each of the teams’ remaining schedules to get a decent sense of how the season might play out.
10th-seed: Golden State Warriors (31-32)
Final 9 games: Houston, NO, NO, OKC, OKC, Utah, PHX, NO, Memphis
Record Prediction Over Final 9 games: 5-4
In typical 2021 Warriors fashion, the team has recently taken one step forward and two steps back. After back-to-back wins over Denver and Sacramento, Golden State finally made it a game over .500 and put themselves within striking distance of the 6th seed. All they needed to do was to beat the Mavericks on Tuesday, but, of course, they got demolished by 30 points and all but kissed their chances of avoiding the play-in tournament goodbye. To add insult to injury, they dropped yet another winnable game to the Timberwolves on Thursday.
Still, despite the Warriors’ poor play in big moments, their chances of making the playoffs look pretty high. That is if they can handle the Pelicans. Golden State plays playoff-hungry New Orleans three times in the final nine games, so if they can at least go 2-1 in those games, they should at least be able to still make the play-in tournament, given they execute a winning record against Houston and OKC.
9th seed: San Antonio Spurs (31-31)
Final 9 games: Utah, Utah, SAC, Portland, MIL, BKLYN, NY, PHX, PHX
Record Prediction Over Final 9 games: 5-4
The Spurs were in a great position to take a full-game lead on the Warriors in the standings tonight, but, thankfully, they blew a 32-point lead to Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics and lost in OT. This means that, given that the Warriors beat Houston on Saturday, Golden State and San Antonio should trade places in the standings this weekend as the Spurs move to 10th and the Warriors to 9th.
San Antonio’s last nine games are a little tougher than Golden State’s. But, given Gregg Popovich’s coaching prowess and the Spurs’ veteran leadership, I’d still expect them to have a winning record over their final stretch—even if they have to play Utah and Phoenix two times each.
8th seed: Memphis Grizzlies (32-30)
Final 9 games: Orlando, NY, MIN, Detroit, TOR, NO, Dallas, SAC, SAC, GS
Record Prediction Over Final 9 games: 6-3
Given the way that they’ve been playing recently, the Grizzles could pull a fast one and make it out of the play-in tournament. Their final nine games are relatively favorable, although they will face two Eastern Conference teams in Toronto and New York, who are fighting for playoff positioning as well. Additionally, if the Sacramento Kings are still fighting hard for the playoffs at the end of the season, it could make things interesting for the Grizzlies.
7th seed: Portland Trail Blazers (35-28)
Final 9 games: Boston, Atlanta, Cleveland, LAL, SA, Houston, Utah, PHX, Denver
Record Prediction Over Final 9 games: 6-3
After a rough 5-game losing streak, the Blazers bounced back nicely as of late and have won three in a row, positioning themselves to potentially avoid the play-in tournament. The rest of the season will be competitive for Portland, but their schedule still remains fairly favorable, in my opinion.