Early Warriors Draft Preview

The NBA playoffs continue on, but the Warriors focus is past that now. Although missing the playoffs was disappointing, it did give the Warriors the chance to end up with two lottery picks in this year’s draft. Their own pick will be given the 14th-best odds to be granted the #1 overall selection, and the Timberwolves pick that they own (as long as it isn’t in the top 3) is projected as the #6 overall pick.

Of course, the draft has many different outcomes for the Warriors. Their own pick could end up in the top four and they would have two early first round picks, or they could lose the Minnesota pick entirely and end up with just a mid-first. For the sake of this exercise, let’s just assume that the Warriors end up with #6 and #14, which is the most likely outcome.

I think the top 5 picks are pretty close to consensus right now. In no particular order, the first five players to be drafted will likely be Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, and Jonathan Kuminga. If the Warriors had the #1 pick, I would think their order of preference would be Cunningham, Suggs, Green, Kuminga, Mobley. If they rise into the top 4, they will happily take any one of those players. Also, if someone decides to reach on another player, the Warriors almost certainly will grab the remaining player.

Let’s say the top five picks go chalk. What do the Warriors do now, presumably at #6? Scottie Barnes from Florida State is probably the best player available, but he lacks a perimeter game and his frequent comparison is someone the Warriors already have: Draymond Green). Keon Johnson from Tennessee is the next best and he would give them an athletic defender on the wing with questionable offensive upside. However, I think the Warriors are really going to value shooting with this pick, and I expect them to lean towards either Moses Moody from Arkansas or Corey Kispert from Gonzaga. Those players could however be considered reaches at six, so it certainly is possible that the Warriors trade down if they aren’t able to get one of the top five players in the draft.

As for comparing the two, Kispert gives the Warriors a deadeye sharpshooter who is considered to be the best shooter in the draft. The Warriors need shooters, and Kispert is the best on available. On the other hand, Moody is more of a 3-and-D type of player. While he isn’t as prolific of a shooter as Kispert, he would help the Warriors in that area while also providing good defense.

At the #14th pick, I think the Warriors might look to go backup point guard, as the talent pool should still be heavy at the position by this point in the draft. Josh Giddey has been on my eyes for the Warriors for a while now, as he is a 6’8” point guard/wing who is more than capable of operating as a secondary ball handler. The main player that the Warriors should choose here though is Baylor point guard Davion Mitchell. I envision him being a player the Warriors fall in love with in the pre-draft process and he could be in play for them anywhere in the draft starting with the #6 pick. However, simply because of his current ADP, I have him listed with this pick.

Mitchell is a lockdown defender and a tremendous leader who plays with a high motor and can shoot/score a little bit. He might not have huge upside, but he is the type of player who the Warriors could use for a very long time.