The Warriors' Standings Situation Going Into the Playoffs
As we approach the end of the regular season, the NBA playoff picture is beginning to take shape. There are still a lot of uncertainties, but four teams have clinched playoffs in the West: The Suns (also clinching the NBA’s best record), the Grizzlies, the Mavericks, and of course, the Warriors, who currently sit in the 3rd seed. Earlier concerns about possibly sliding into the play-in have been eliminated, thankfully, as the lowest the Dubs could fall is the 6th seed.
There’s still plenty of basketball to be played, however. As of now, the Warriors are set to play the Utah Jazz in the first round. That could be subject to change depending on how they finish the season. If they win out, they will secure the 3rd seed and a matchup against Utah, or possibly Minnesota or Denver, who are right in the same neighborhood.
The Jazz are probably the best-case scenario, as they just blew a 20-point lead to the Warriors a few nights ago, and the Warriors historically dominate that matchup (largely thanks to Rudy Gobert’s tendency to play drop-coverage against two the game’s all-time greatest shooters). The wrinkle Jordan Poole throws into Golden State’s pick-heavy offense is a major advantage on a team that bases their defense around a paint-tethered 7-footer who’s won 3 Defensive Player of the Year awards on cleaning up tough shots and fake news.
The Nuggets are a bit of a trickier situation. Denver owns the season series 3-1, although that comes with the caveat of having one be a reschedule from earlier this season because they couldn’t field enough players, and the most recent was a Warriors win in the Mile High City. Nikola Jokic is playing at MVP-level, and the Nuggets have historically played the Dubs well. That being said, they haven’t faced the Warriors at full strength yet: We haven’t really seen Draymond Green on Jokic yet, and recently it seems like Golden State has kicked it into high-gear in order to finish strong without Steph Curry. If they keep that energy into the playoffs, a first-round matchup with Denver is not as ideal as against Utah, but is still favorable.
The Timberwolves are a serious basketball team. Maybe not a contender, but they could make a late push for the 6th seed. Currently a game and a half back on the Jazz, they have 3 games left and a much easier schedule than Utah (who has to play Phoenix and Memphis in 2 of their 4 games). They could win-out and make it into the 6th seed. Minnesota presents a few more matchup problems with Karl-Anthony Towns, former Warrior D’Angelo Russell, and second-year stud Anthony Edwards. The Wolves are a deep team that can lock it down on defense, and with plenty of offensive options, they could present problems if the Warriors aren’t careful. Could they outlast Golden State in a 7 game series? Likely not given their relative youth and inexperience, but it would be a mistake to not take them seriously and let them get too much of a leg-up in a series.
Given the matchup options, the Utah Jazz are the ideal opponent in the first round for the Warriors. They play Golden State the worst, have the most exploitable matchups, and lost the season series 3-1, with the most recent being their epic 4th-quarter collapse at the hands of Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. Their defensive schemes centric around Gobert make them easy targets against a perimeter-heavy team like the Warriors, and with no significant perimeter help, they’re liable to get torched.
There is another question to be asked, however: Should the Warriors try to hold on to the 3rd seed, or risking falling to the 4th so they can rest their guys? They’d likely end up with Denver in the first round, which isn’t the worst-case scenario, but they’d play Phoenix in the second, who they’ve played well without being at full strength all season.
This Suns team is reminiscent of another Chris Paul team - the Houston Rockets in the late 2010s who hit the Warriors wall constantly in the playoffs - with a premier scorer (James Harden/Devin Booker) and a dimensional big man (Clint Capela/Deandre Ayton). Jordan Poole doesn’t even have to continue his heater as he’s already established himself as a threat, and if Mikal Bridges is going to check Steph Curry, then Poole will have free run on whoever the Suns throw at him. Count in nobody to check Klay Thompson, and there’s too much firepower on the Warriors roster for Phoenix to realistically hang with. Booker has a tendency to get clamped but the Golden State defense with their team IQ, meaning it’s going to fall to Paul and Ayton to get things done. If Draymond Green’s in the mix? That matchup is looking pretty good.
Alternatively, staying in the 3rd seed means the Warriors will likely face Memphis in the second round. While not as good as Phoenix, they’ve bothered the Dubs with their depth and will have Ja Morant back to raise their floor even higher. Memphis is good, but they’re also young, and despite having a big-game player in Morant, they can’t guard Steph in the slightest. Curry has averaged 38 points per game in the last two seasons against the Grizzlies. Poole dropped an efficient 25 on them a few games ago where he was essentially the only one getting run (Green and Thompson were sitting). Yes, Memphis is a good team, but they’ve benefitted a lot from not having to face the Warriors at full strength. This is a different team than the one that lost to them in the play-in last year.
No matter how these matchups shake out, another conference finals appearance, and possibly a run to the NBA Finals, is within reach. It’s about the path of least resistance: There aren’t many matchups in the West that can’t swing in Golden State’s favor. The Warriors at the height of their powers (i.e. when fully healthy) will be tough to beat in a 7-game series for any team in the West. The playoffs are a whole different ballgame, and as long as they don’t get bored or complacent, this team has a championship gear to it, and the West could be theirs for the taking.
(Photo credit: Melissa Majchrzak / Getty Images)