Warriors Stand at 2nd-Best Odds to Repeat Championship Run
Fresh off their 4th championship of the last 8 years, the Golden State Warriors are already looking ahead to capitalize on their championship window remaining concurrent with their development timeline for their young talent. While some time was spent during free agency pondering offers to make, they eventually got two new deals penned with Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green.
Both are veteran players who will be able to fill out rotation minutes while the Warriors get Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and James Wiseman ready to play more significant minutes. They’re not just gearing up for another title run, they’re gearing up for another 10-15 years of competing at a high level. So, much like the organization itself, we’re also looking forward to the future, but for now, we’re just going to focus on the short-term future.
From the moment the final buzzer of the NBA Finals sounds, oddsmakers in Vegas get to work on picking their initial favorites to win next season. Those odds are generally initial reactionaries, and it’s not until free agency picks up that the lines start to shift more towards where people actually expect them to be. The two teams at the top last season are at the top of the odds list going into next: The Warriors, and their Finals opponent, the Boston Celtics. The Celtics actually are clocking in at #1, their line sitting at +450 (meaning a $100 dollar bet on the Celtics to win the 2023 title would net you $450 if they pull it off), while the Warriors follow up not too far behind at +550, per Caesars Sportsbook.
You may be thinking: Why is the team that just lost in the NBA Finals the favorite to win next season? When you look at free agency, the answer is clear: The Celtics got noticeably better, upgrading positions with talent like Malcolm Brogdon at the point and Danilo Gallinari as a stretch 4, without losing any of their primary rotation players. The Warriors, while they now have some experience for their young core, lost key players in Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr., two guys who were pretty important through the playoffs last year. Golden State did manage to grab some solid talent in DiVincenzo and Green, but they aren’t proven parts of the roster like Otto-matic and GP2 were.
It’s not that the Warriors necessarily got worse, it’s just that Boston got better in more noticeable ways. Brogdon was acquired for pennies on the dollar and Gallo is what Nemanja Bjelica would look like if he traded his passing aptitude for more scoring versatility. The Celtics were already the league’s 2nd-best defense last year, and while Gallinari doesn’t change that much, Brogdon is a notable improvement.
The rest of the top 10 in terms of odds aren’t quite something spectacular to behold. The Clippers come in at 3rd after acquiring John Wall and anticipating both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back at full strength. They’re tied with the Suns (no notable changes from the best record in the league) and the Bucks (arguably only bounced from the playoffs due to Khris Middleton’s injury) at +800. Somehow the Lakers are #6, proving that Vegas doesn’t always know what it’s talking about. The Heat and Sixers aren’t far behind, trailed by the Nets - presumably barring a KD/Kyrie departure) and then the Nuggets and Grizzlies are tied for #10. The spread of championship expectations is, for once, seemingly painting next season as even game between the Eastern and Western Conferences.
The Warriors will need to get quality play out of Kuminga and Moody this year, especially if they want to run it back. Moody has looked polished and composed, while Kuminga’s athleticism and game instinct has wowed plenty, but they’re both also just in their 2nd year. Wiseman is, despite flashes in Summer League, still a pretty big question mark, but at worst is a serviceable backup big man for when Looney takes a lot of punishment. Is it fair to loft these expectations on the Dubs of the future? Likely, at least a little bit, but when the odds are this good, you have to play up to them to a certain extent. It shouldn’t be an issue, of course, given they’re playing with the greatest floor-raiser of all time.
(Photo credit: Michael Dwyer / Associated Press)