Analyzing Patrick Baldwin Jr.'s Ceiling
The Warriors have been hitting real well on draft picks lately, but the lottery picks have mostly seemed to be no-brainers given where they’ve been selected: It’s been in the late 1st round and after where the most impressive parts of the Warriors’ scouting ability have shined. Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, and Jordan Poole were all key parts of the most recent championship run, and all were drafted at 28th overall or later.
The Warriors may have gotten away with yet another steal after getting pick #28 again this season in Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Baldwin was the 5th best hoops prospect in the country coming out of high school, according to ESPN. Injuries shortened his only season in college and likely sank him on a few draft boards, but he has the tools and possible track to be better than his draft position may let on. His 11 games at Milwaukee produced 12 points and just under 6 rebounds a game on decent volume, doing so in 28.5 minutes a contest. All things considered, those are pretty solid numbers for college basketball.
It’s his shooting splits where things tend to get dicey. Baldwin shot 34% from the field and 26% from three, neither of which are particularly good marks. While he did struggle from beyond the arc, his reputation coming into Division I as a knockdown shooter and a free throw percentage at 74% indicate he’s got the mechanics down and should anchor him a little better in the pros. He also has a high release point and fluid mechanics, which would indicate he has the ability to take advantage of clean looks which his teammates can create. One area of concern amongst scouts was in his shot selection, which isn’t always too concerning for college prospects because they can be one-man shows depending on the program.
His shot is likely what sold the Warriors on banking on his upside, but his measurables probably helped plenty themselves. Baldwin is 6’10 with a rangy reach, clocking in at 220 pounds as of draft evaluation. He has the physical tools in terms of frame and mobility to be a solid wing on both ends, and has shown some signs of defensive capabilities (just under 1 steal and 1 block per game during his freshman season) or, at the very least, ability to erase mistakes in help. There are concerns about his athleticism and willingness to be a traditional big man, however, as he’s perimeter-oriented and doesn’t get off the ground particularly well. On top of that, his ankle injury which took out his senior season of high school and ended his one college season early, and with lower-body injuries more commonly nagging bigger players, it could be an issue down the line. Regardless of those concerns, however, the skill and nuance to his game is obviously there, and the boom potential on him as a draft pick is as good as any:
So where is his ceiling? Draft scouts had him compared to current player Jalen Johnson, who hasn’t seen many minutes with the Atlanta Hawks since being drafted, but assuming he puts in the work, his ceiling can obviously be a little better. Given his size and shooting ability, he could track similar to another draft-sliding prospect who ranked well early: Michael Porter Jr. of the Denver Nuggets. MPJ is a scoring-oriented wing who can remain solid and make plays on the defensive end, and while he had a lot of expectations coming into the league, he’s not overly-hyped: A similar role for Baldwin as an off-ball shooter, driver, and capable switch defender once he’s able to get comfortable with the NBA pace of play would do him well. He’s shown flashes of being able to make the right pass and remain unselfish on the court, tendencies which would fit well with the Warriors given their brand of basketball. His off-ball movement, something which was notable amongst scouts, is something else which will help in a motion-heavy offense.
Overall, a 6’10 wing with a 7’2 wingspan who has great shooting touch and shows a lot of skill is a great mold for a 20-year-old prospect to start out with, especially in an organization that can afford to develop him a bit. Players are made better in Golden State mainly because of the amount of high IQ hoops that is played there, and it seems the game feel (much including his shot selection) is really the biggest thing that PBJ is missing so far. Given he was a possible lottery pick and such a highly-touted prospect in high school, Baldwin’s ceiling feels inordinately high given his draft position. With the medical staff that ironed out Steph Curry’s problematic ankle issues also on board and a development program that’s helped further along the creation of future stars, Patrick Baldwin Jr. should be able to reach the heights he was predicted to given time to get healthy, and is probably the best low-risk high-reward pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. He’ll slot right in positionally as a stretch four down the road and has a good baseline while maintaining a lot of potential, keeping the Warriors’ future plans to build a complete team for the next 10-15 years intact.
To give him a player comparison, the aim for now would be Michael Porter Jr., but the best version of PBJ would probably be Brandon Ingram. But who knows? He could even end up an all-star or franchise cornerstone, given how the Warriors can make players who are the best versions of themselves even better.
(Photo credit: James Gilbert / Getty Images)