Back-To-Backs And The NBA's Load Management Problem

The Warriors are scheduled to play the current #1 seed in the Western Conference tonight after a devastating 4th quarter loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves last night. In what should be a vaunted playoff rematch against two teams which have seemingly flipped struggles after their postseason meetup, and not to mention a good litmus test to see where the Dubs are at, Klay Thompson is listed as out, and both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are questionable to play.

What’s now a common term in “load management” is made possible in large part because situations like this with the back-to-back schedule. The Warriors, because their starters are starting to get on the older side of their prime, need to rest their players because the stress of playing all 82 games can lead to major concerns late in a career. Going hard for 48 minutes against the best athletes in the world is taxing, and doing it on consecutive days can result in problems which reduce longevity or increase exposure to injury.

And if that weren’t the case according the science of sports, NBA teams wouldn’t be resting their stars as often as they are.

The Warriors are one of five teams who have a league-most 15 games the day after playing. They’re tied with the Clippers, Jazz, Kings, and Bulls. Sure, only one of those was expected to be a legit playoff contender this year besides Golden State at the start of the season, but it represents a bigger issue: The demand of the NBA schedule is beginning to muck up teams’ ability to compete to their fullest because of the back-to-backs.

The Warriors are currently 5-5 in back-to-backs this season. They started off 2-5 before a recent stretch where they had more players available to fill an already-thin rotation. Some guys have been getting comfortable in their roles and have been contributing more regularly to lead this 3-game winstreak on no rest, but there’s still another four after tonight’s matchup that the team will have to get through as they continue to find some kind of consistency. That will be harder as their guys will be sitting more of those second-leg games.

In their most recent back-to-back, the Warriors traveled to a long-time rival in Cleveland. The Cavaliers have had a pretty solid year so far, currently standing at 5th in the East and have an All-Star starter in guard Donovan Mitchell, as well as a lot of exciting talent. There were a lot of fans who showed up from all over the Midwest to the game to see Stephen Curry: Why wouldn’t they? He’s the NBA’s most marketable player with more fans both nationally and globally than probably anyone else.

Those people were unfortunately disappointed because it was a load management game, and the only two guys in the “Foundational Six” who were playing were Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney. Steve Kerr acknowledged the frustrations of the fans after the game, understanding why they were upset.

“I feel terrible for fans who buy tickets expecting to see someone play and they don’t get to see that person play,” Kerr said as reported by NBC Sports. “It’s a brutal part of the business.”

Kerr’s been a long-time advocate for 72-game seasons, citing this time that the extra ten games each year are where players see the most burnout unless they’re jostling for playoff position. His solution would go a long way towards reducing the number of back-to-backs, or even eliminating them entirely.

And in turn, that begins to address the load management issue.

The NBA is, obviously, a spectator sport. Without the spectators it draws in, the sport isn’t near what it is today. People pay to see the players because the product is entirely lackluster without taking account of the talent around the league: The officiating has been abysmal this season, analysis segments around the sport are riddled with nothing but hot takes and ‘what ifs’, and the game is just less fun to watch when the level of play is lower. It’s so blatant that the league should be doing whatever it can to get their best on the floor for every game. People want to watch good basketball, so give it to them.

The problem with that, however, is that while the players they watch are elite athletes, we live in an age where “peak performance” is incredibly important as the level of the pool of talent increases. The athleticism from guys in the NBA requires everyone to be at or nearing that peak performance, or they fall drastically behind. Load management is a requirement to having players play at their apex, which improves the quality of the product the league puts out.

We can see the drawbacks of the way the league sabotages itself with the schedule setup, specifically by watching the Warriors play. This team looks worse because they’re completely out of energy sometimes: Golden State is getting everyone’s best shot every night (as the reigning champs should) and they’re playing the most consecutive games out of anyone save the four teams who also have 15 back-to-backs. That’s not sustainable in this day and age, especially when the most popular basketball player on the planet is sitting games so he can extend his career and the MVP-caliber play he brings night in and night out.

A lot of the onus is placed on the teams themselves for this load management issue, but the obvious culprit is the schedule itself. Simple, non-contextualized math says “the more games, the more profit”, which drives how the league reasons their way into how it’s currently designed. That doesn’t take into account that the majority of people tune in to see the stars who are not playing, more often than not, because playing two days in a row of elite basketball prevents them from their peak level that everyone wants to see. It leads to down performances and a lack of consistency across the board which the NBA doesn’t seem to realize.

Coach Kerr’s suggestion of a 72-game season is the most sensible approach if the league wants to see more people playing. Making an attempt to eliminate back-to-backs entirely increases the viability of the product across the league and the excitement basketball has in every game. We’re in an era where the sport is saturated with talent… but what good is that if they’re not getting the chance to put that on display?

(Photo credit: Gerald Herbert / Associated Press)