What would it take for the Golden State Warriors to trade for Giannis?
Cue the rumors and “according to sources,” fire up those jersey photoshops, and officially allow the Giannis Antetokoumpo speculation to begin. Granted, the likely back-to-back MVP still dons the Milwaukee Bucks jersey and has a super-max extension offer on the table this coming offseason, but all questions and inevitable speculation will hinge on whether he signs on the dotted line.
The Greek Freak might be adamant that a trade request “is not happening” this offseason, but there are legitimate questions to be raised after back-to-back playoff exits for the Bucks, the latter coming in the second round to the fifth-seed Miami Heat.
Is the Bucks’ front office confident it can make the necessary additions to improve the roster and avoid another early exit? Is the team committed to spending when necessary? Is it possible to assume the Bucks missed their window for contention?
If there are any legitimate qualms on the above, there is a team out in the Bay that is more than confident to dispel any doubts, and they have the track record to prove it.
Unlike the Golden State Warriors’ last monumental addition of Kevin Durant back in 2016, the path to Giannis is different, and would surely require more moving assets. The process would be extensive, but if the Warriors’ front office is committed to making a splash, these are the steps it would take to make those Giannis-Warriors jersey photoshops a reality.
Demanding a trade
4th of July fireworks came early in the Bay Area when Kevin Durant announced he would sign with the Warriors as a free agent outright, but we won’t be seeing that same movie twice with Giannis. Sure, the dream scenario might be that Golden State comes back and impresses next season, and Giannis, having not signed his extension and pushing his inevitable free agency to 2021, decides to join the Warriors in the aftermath. But that presents its own quirks and challenges.
If Golden State is eyeing for Giannis to join sooner rather than later, it has to be via trade, and it would necessitate Giannis demanding that he wants to be traded to the Warriors specifically.
The financial factors at play essentially wipe any hope for Golden State to sign Giannis to a max deal outright. In what would be Giannis’ first season of his next contract, Golden State is already committing around $45 million to Stephen Curry, roughly $38 million to Klay Thompson, and $24 million to Draymond Green. That is roughly $108 million combined between the three, and if you add in Andrew Wiggins’ salary of around $31 million, that number bumps up to $139 million between four players.
The projected salary cap for that season hovered around $125 million, and that number will inevitably shrink due to the effects of the pandemic. So signing Giannis outright is out of the question, and due to their financial restraints, Giannis would need to communicate that he solely wants to be traded to Golden State in order for the Warriors to have skin in the game.
His recent comments through Yahoo! Sports echoed differently, but if opinions change in these ever-changing circumstances and the Warriors find themselves in play, they’ll at least overcome the first hurdle and get their foot in the door.
Initial assets
The Warriors landed the second overall pick in this year’s draft, and that selection will undoubtedly be included in any trade package being assembled for Giannis. Golden State also has the Minnesota Timberwolves’ top-three protected 2021 first-round pick, after trading D’Angelo Russell last season. For added measure, the Warriors also have two future unprotected first-round selections.
Realistically, the 2020 second overall pick and Minnesota’s top-three protected 2021 first-round pick are locks in any trade package. The Warriors front office will have to determine if adding in an additional future first-rounder is worth the price of bringing Giannis to Chase Center.
As Golden State’s salary cap situation has been well chronicled, they would have to add-in a matching salary in the trade package. Andrew Wiggins is the most likely candidate here, and realistically this belief has been shared by many since he was acquired at least year’s trade deadline.
So for starters, the 2020 second overall pick, Minnesota’s 2021 top-three protected first-round pick, Andrew Wiggins, and (maybe) an additional future first-rounder would sweeten the deal.
The final piece of the puzzle would likely be the hardest for the organization and most certainly for fans, as it would require saying goodbye to one of the core pieces of the dynasty.
Klay or Draymond?
The final decision of any trade package for Giannis might be the hardest to make, but it has implications for both the Warriors and the Bucks. For Milwaukee, should your face of the franchise ultimately communicate that he’s leaving regardless, whether via trade or free agency, and that he specifically wants to make Chase Center his next home, the organization has to work to get assets in return rather than letting him walk away for nothing.
On paper, the 2020 second overall pick, Minnesota’s 2021 top-three protected pick, potentially a future first-rounder, and Andrew Wiggins isn’t enough. They have to acquire as much as possible from the Warriors in return, and their eyes will be set on either Klay Thompson or Draymond Green (knowing Steph Curry is untouchable). If the Bucks are smart, they’ll push for Klay Thompson to be included in a deal.
For Golden State, they have to accept the reality that Klay or Draymond will be included in a trade package, if not for the Bucks trying to get a bounty in return, then as a result of their salary cap restrictions. Steph, Klay, Draymond, and Giannis at a max deal isn’t a feasible salary cap combination, especially when there are 11 other roster spots to fill. Green is likely the preferred trade candidate here, although he does make roughly $14 million less compared to Klay, which could create more financial obstacles to work through.
Regardless, any trade scenario would have to include either Klay or Draymond, and as a result, it arguably makes this part the most difficult for the Warriors as a whole. Klay is one of the greatest shooters to ever step foot on the court and one of the best defenders in the league. Draymond is literally the heart and soul of the defense and so adept in mastering the Warriors’ offense.
Both of their basketball IQs can’t be replaced, and both are indispensable to the rise of the Warriors dynasty. Their devotion to Golden State goes beyond the letters on their jerseys, without both of them, there is no dynasty. All of the above cannot be overstated.
Golden State will eventually enter a new era nonetheless, and should that transition coincide with Giannis making the Warriors his next home, it will likely mean the departure of one of the staples of this dynasty. Ultimately, it’ll be up to the front office to decide if this seismic trade is worth the price.